Tag Archives: mlb

Better Gauge Players’ Value To Avoid Overpaying

I think Phillies GM Ruben Amaro has taken his already difficult job and made it even harder, thanks in large part to his inability to leverage the baseball analytics that’s at his fingertips.

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Do MLB Players Get Better or Worse as they Age?

Life is full of questions that don’t have an easy answer:

Why do we drive on a parkway and park in a driveway?

Why are there 90 feet between home plate and first base?

How much wood could a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood?

Life has a funny way of balancing itself out though. As proof, these types of questions are balanced out by those with more obvious answers. To demonstrate what ‘more obvious answers’ are, here is a commercial from AT&T’s ‘It’s Not Complicated’ ad campaign.

If you don’t have 32 seconds, it goes like this: a man asks a group of elementary-school-aged kids a simple question like, ‘which is better: bigger or smaller?’ and why. In another spot, he asks the kids if being faster or slower is better.

This got me thinking: Phillies GM Ruben Amaro and his front office personnel should be forced to sit in a room. A moderator walks into the room and asks the group: ‘Is it better to flush money down the toilet or spend it wisely?’ Amaro et al. may collectively agree that it’s better to spend money wisely, but based on the contracts they’ve given out to “the core” in the past three years, it would be hard to take this ownership group seriously.

Start with Ryan Howard. Forget about the fact that Amaro offered him the contract a year and a half before he was set to hit free agency. In a nutshell, Ryan Howard could have gone 0-for-the-next- year-and-a-half and his value would have dropped considerably. As a result, Amaro could have offered Howard much less than the 5-year, $125 million contract extension he signed. He didn’t go 0-for-the-next-year-and-a-half but you get the point. Ryan Howard’s first full season with the Phils was 2006. His on-base percentage was .425, and his slugging percentage was .659. By 2009, his OBP had dropped .065 points and his SLG had dropped .088 points. In and of itself, there was nothing wrong with the drop.  As hitters age, their skills begin to diminish. That’s life. The problem arises when you reward a declining 29-year-old player with a long-term contract and guaranteed money. Since the beginning of his contract extension in 2010, Howard’s OBP fell another .034 points to .319 while his SLG fell .040 points to .465.

Okay, it happened once. Amaro learned his lesson and it won’t happen again, right? Wrong. Yo, Kevin Nealon and Dana Carvey from Saturday Night Live, can you back me up on this one?

Jimmy Rollins’ peak OBP occurred when he was 29. His peak SLG occurred at age 28. Not only was a 32 year old Rollins rewarded with a three-year contract three years after his SLG peaked, he was actually given a $2.5M raise per season. Again, player performance goes down while pay goes up. Why does the Boob keep doing that? Just flush the money down the toilet.

The Boob did the same thing to Chase Utley this season, offering the soon-to-be 35 year old second baseman a two-year contract, with performance incentives that can keep him a Phillie through 2017. While I don’t think two years is too much to offer Utley at this stage of his career, I do think $13.5 million a season could be better spent elsewhere.

Catchers Carlos Ruiz (age 34) and Erik Kratz (age 33) have seen their SLG drop over .100 points to .326 and .403, respectively. Outfielder John Mayberry Jr.’s (age 29) OBP has dropped .080 points in three years, while his SLG has dropped more than .400 points.

I’ve made some predictions in blog posts before, and I feel very comfortable making this one: these three guys over the age of 29 – Mayberry, Kratz and Ruiz – will all be on the active roster come Opening Day 2014.

I’m one of thousands of Phillies fans familiar with Ruben Amaro’s (or Ruin Tomorrow’s) penchant for throwing money at players whose skills are diminishing. Maybe if the team had been competitive since 2012, we could look past some bad contracts. But they haven’t so we can’t.

If we can see it, why can’t Phillies’ ownership?

Now there’s a question that doesn’t have an easy answer.

Thoughts and Predictions — the Short, Short Version

Yes I haven’t blogged in awhile.

No I’m not watching the All Star Game.

Yes I like that the winning league gets home field advantage in the World Series.

No my team will not be in the World Series so why should I care.

No I am not a bandwagon fan.

No I did not watch the Home Run Derby.

Yes we have already heard Chris Berman say ‘back, back, back’ before.

No it’s not cute anymore.

Yes I am concerned about the Phillies.

Yes I wish the team’s GM wasn’t a moron.

No I don’t know who else I would want as a GM.

No I would not be a ‘buyer’ for a bullpen arm.

Yes I would trade Michael Young.

No I would not trade for a centerfielder.

Yes I would trade Chase Utley.

Yes the GM is going to get fleeced again on July 29th aka ‘Trade-A-Phillie’ Day.

No the Phillies will not play .600 baseball to make the postseason.

Yes I am looking forward to football season.

Yes I think the Eagles’ offense will be exciting to watch.

No I am not convinced the Eagles’ defense will be any better this season.


Yes the 20 statements above count as one blog post

Yes I Googled ‘do 20 statements count as a blog post?’

Thoughts?

Two Words for You Domonic Brown: Mea Culpa

“When I’m wrong, I say I’m wrong.”

It’s the phrase uttered by the late Jerry Orbach in the classic ’80s flick, Dirty Dancing. It’s also a completely apropos statement relating to Phillies’ outfielder Domonic Brown. Thanks to a home run barrage by Brown in May, he’s made bloggers like me look plain silly. Continue reading

Scorecard: Strasburg On Fire as Nationals Take Series 2 – 1

The Washington Nationals beat the Phillies on Sunday 6 – 1. Here are a few of my observations from the game.

Phillies scorecard against NationalsCan you find a ‘BB’ on the Phillies scorecard? I bet you can’t. Wanna know why? The Phillies don’t work counts enough to take walks. Yes, Nationals pitcher Steven Strasburg was ‘on’ yesterday, but Phillies hitters could have fouled off pitches when they got behind in the count. The Nationals’ hitters made Cole Hamels’ pitch count go up that way, why couldn’t the Phils’ hitters do the same to Strasburg?

Nationals scorecard against PhilliesThe Phillies 3-4-5 hitters — Michael Young, Delmon Young, and Domonic Brown — were up a total of 11 times yesterday. They struck out a combined six times (two looking and four swinging). On the up side, these three only stranded one in scoring position. On the down side, these three only stranded one in scoring position.

Lastly, on the Nationals’ scorecard you’ll see a note in the bottom margin: *De Fratus should be pitching to Lombardozzi in the 7th. I made that notation based on the sequence of plays before the Nationals’ second baseman came to the plate: Zimmerman single, LaRoche single, Desmond sacrifice bunt, Moore walk, Solano safe on fielder’s choice, throwing error on third baseman Michael Young. At this point, two runs scored on Young’s throwing error and it was clear to every Phillies fan watching the game that Hamels’ pitches were no longer effective. Right-handed reliever Justin DeFratus was warming up in the bullpen. Why the hell would you let Hamels, a lefty, pitch against a righty who had hit the ball hard the entire series? Phils’ manager Charlie Manual left Cole in there rather than playing the right-right matchup (right-handed pitcher vs. right-handed hitter). As you can see from the scorecard, Hamels was up third in the Phils’ half of the eighth. I guess Manual didn’t want to use DeFratus knowing he’d have to pinch hit for him, especially if the Phils’ first two hitters got on base? That tells me Manual didn’t have enough confidence in his bench. I can’t imagine why a manager wouldn’t have confidence inserting John Mayberry Jr., Erik Kratz, or Michael Martinez into a lineup. #rubenamarolovestheseguys

I would have rather used DeFratus in this scenario and then used my pinch hitter with the highest on-base percentage, which is John Mayberry. Yet another case where the team’s lack of a solid bench hamstrings a manager who already makes terrible in-game decisions.

What stands out to you from either scorecard? Leave a comment below.

Phillies Successful Versus N.L. West as Visit From the Tribe Looms

Despite scoring a combined 10 runs in their four games (2.5 runs per game) against the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Philadelphia Phillies split the series and finished the seven-game road trip at 4 – 3. It’s beyond comical to say, at this point, but the offense is still inconsistent.

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Phillies Plummeting Towards the N.L. East Cellar

Leave it to Chris “Wheels” Wheeler, the Phillies’ color commentator, to put a positive spin on a 14 – 2 shellacking at the hands of the Miami Marlins. In the eighth inning, when the score was only 10 – 0, he said: “The last thing [the Phillies] needed today was to use three, four, five [relief] pitchers and right now they’ve only had to use two.” I beg to differ, Wheels. The last thing the Phillies needed today was for Doc Halladay to prove to Phillies’ fans that he’s washed up and done. Doc, I’d say mission accomplished. But this posting isn’t about the fact that Doc, a once-feared ace of a pitching staff, has become a mere shell of himself. It’s about how much worse it can get in the next week.

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