Tag Archives: sabermetrics

Flopping FIPers as a Formula for Victory?

Lefties hit righties and vice versa and I don’t mean that in a political way. The effects of hitters playing in their home park versus away from home is marginal improvement, at best. With all the data flying around out there in the sports world, I refuse to believe there’s no way to determine if a hitter is going to hit safely. In my first full season of MLB.com’s Beat the Streak, I’m going to put on my analyst’s hat and try to come up with an algorithm to predict if a batter will hit safely.

There may be tweaking going forward but here’s what I surmise right now: choose hitters who have above average Weighted On-Base Averages, or wOBA, against starting pitchers who have below-average Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) numbers. Since I’m not looking to project a full season, I only want to cover a narrow scope so I’m only including data over the past seven days.

FIP

For today, the two starters I’m targeting are Masahiro Tanaka and Jhoulys Chacin who, over the past seven days, have the third and fourth highest FIPs. (In case you’re wondering, the first and second highest FIP starters are not in action.)

In addition to Home vs. Away and Left vs. Right, here’s what else I’m NOT targeting in this first algorithm:

    • Batting average
    • Earned-run average
    • Head-to-head matchup
    • Strikeout rate
    • Contact type generated (e.g. fly ball, ground ball, etc.)

The hitters I’m targeting, Adam Jones and Brandon Belt have above average wOBAs. While it’s a small sample size to examine, I’m hoping to ride their hot streaks a little bit longer before they regress to the mean.

Let’s see what happens.

If ‘The Big Piece’ Finds Patience, Could the Phils Find the Playoffs?

Coming off a 2013 season where he swung and missed at a career-high 16.9% of pitches, Ryan Howard is displaying a better eye at the plate so far in 2014. Through 62 plate appearances (or 15 games), The Big Piece’s swinging-strike percentage is down more than 50% over the same amount of plate appearances last year. If nothing else, it’s an excellent sign for a team that, as a whole, has been undisciplined at the plate over the past 3 seasons.
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